My Most Efficient (Yet Still Somewhat Inefficient) Digital Life Yet

Posted on March 24, 2008 | 2 Comments

For many years, new technology and gadgets have often wasted more time than they’ve saved. Only recently have I been mildly satisfied with my latest entanglement of services and devices that I rely on to run daily life. Here is my current run-down.

  • Email: I use my own domain(s) for email and Google Apps for Domains has been the best solution yet. I’ve been running it for about 16 months now after using MS Outlook for almost a decade. The free version has 6.5+GB of space and the Premier Edition gives you 25GB for $50/yr. It also allows you to POP3 or IMAP mail in/out of the system. I imported all of my old email so I can use the search feature (it’s Google, the search rocks) to go back over a decade of mail. A lot of people like to keep all their old email (like Mark Cuban, who should definitely check this out). Cost: $0.
  • Calendar: Google again. It comes with the Apps for Domains package. I like keeping multiple calendars (work, personal, financial/investment, birthdays) so you can turn them on and off as you need them. I also like the database of calendars Google keeps that you can search through and add to your own. That is the only way I know which sports games on are and when. Also, it finally 2-way auto-syncs with my BlackBerry with the new Google Sync for BlackBerry. Cost: $0.
  • Tasks: I still can’t figure out why Google hasn’t made even a primitive task manager part of their online suite that is slowly eroding Outlook’s market share. Until they do, I’ll be a faithful user of RememberTheMilk.com. It lets you create multiple task lists, set due dates, add notes and associate links all very quickly. They are also one of the earliest adopters and best users of Google Gears so the task system works when you’re offline and will sync later when it detects a connection. I use this on multiple machines throughout the day and it does a great job of staying in sync. The only thing they really still need is BlackBerry sync (they have a Pro Version ($25/yr) that syncs with iPhones or Windows mobile devices). Cost: $0.
  • Chat: Because I really only chat with people in my organization (which runs Google Apps), I really only need GChat (Google Talk). They have a great BlackBerry client, though, which can tell when you’re not at your PC anymore and will send chat conversations to your BB (which blinks red when there are new IM’s). All your chats are logged and searchable later (unless you tell it to go “off the record”) Works flawlessly. Cost: $0.
    • www.blackberry.com/GoogleTalk from your BB browser.
  • Phones: I still have 2 phones because I haven’t found one yet that is durable enough for all of life’s activities (and I like redundancy).
    • Motorola K1M KRZR (Verizon) – horrible UI but very small, durable and cheap/easy to replace if lost.
    • BlackBerry 8830 (Verizon) – A great device, though I’d use a Curve if Verizon carried it. And it obviously has a lot of support from the Google Apps.
  • Backups: Both desktop and web server backups are very important in my (and most peoples’) business.
    • Desktop files: I’ve been an avid user of FolderShare.com for quite a while now and it has always been there for me (it even survived being acquired by Microsoft!) It is a small desktop client that runs in Windows or OSX and monitors directories you tell it to watch for changes to files. When files are created/changed/deleted, they are sent to the other machines in your FolderShare network that are currently online. It does so in a peer-to-peer fashion so your files never touch a Microsoft server. You can also access all of your files via foldershare.com (as long as the client machines are on and connected). This has saved me countless times when I’ve been on the road and needed a file I forgot on my desktop. There is a lot of buzz these days around backing up to “The Cloud”, but I see no reason to move away from FolderShare anytime soon. Running it across my home and work machines has allowed me to stop paying for and bothering with expensive RAID arrays as well. Oh yeah, and it’s free.
    • Server files: I also have a leased Linux web server that I host a few non-mission-critical web sites on (like this blog, for instance). Even though it is not mission critical, I’d rather not lose everything when it inevitably dies. I also would rather not pay for expensive RAID gear or managed backup services. For this reason I use a nightly RSYNC via SSH to backup to another Linux web server. This isn’t an extremely process to set up, but if you do the following 2 how-to’s in order, you’ll be set. You’ll need some Linux CLI knowledge but nothing hard-core.

This technology changes and typically improves almost every month – especially the Google offering. I’ll probably end up jumping on the iPhone bandwagon, too, once the next version is released and they start using a real network.

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Posted in How-To, Productivity

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You May Want to Call American Express After Reading This

Posted on January 24, 2008 | 7 Comments

I have a PO Box that receives all of my bills, etc. because for some reason I felt that USPS would be reliable in this domain where they have failed in so many others. When I visit the post office to fish mail out of this box every two weeks or so it is invariable overflowing with direct [junk] mail advertising. I’ve used services like CatalogChoice.org to successfully end delivery of unwanted catalogs and some of the mail is from organizations that I’ve donated money or property to (which is sad because now when I get ready to donate to an organization that I haven’t donated to before I get a flash of my overflowing PO Box getting fuller yet). None of these junk mail sources, however, compare to the venerable American Express marketing machine. I am a card holder of their’s but am on the paperless billing system so literally none of the mail they send me has anything to do with my account. In fact, they often try to get me to sign up for the very card I carry in my wallet. I get probably 10-15 pieces per month from them ranging from credit card offers to vacation offers to mortgage offers.

Having recently been inconvenienced by this waste of paper and time spent at the post office, I decided to give their general customer service line a call (800-528-4800) to see if there was anything I could do to stop the flow. Their always-friendly agent responded immediately to my request to be removed from the direct mail list as if she’d been training for it for months. She then went into script mode and quickly read me the list of things I was being opted out of. Within seconds I zoned out and tried to politely let her finish (for some reason I feel guilty hanging up prematurely on overly-polite customer service people). A few key words in her monotone caught my attention, though, so I grabbed a pen and asked her to repeat the list, more slowly this time. Here is how it read:

“You are now being opted out of the following programs with American Express:

  1. Telemarketing
  2. Banking offers
  3. Offers from 3rd parties (little scary)
  4. Amex news (huh?)
  5. Affiliate sharing of credit history & report (WOW)
  6. American Express sweepstakes”

The entire call took about 3 minutes and after letting my mind wander on #5 for another 3 minutes, I decided to post this entry.

Incidentally, this got me search for other opt-out stories and I came across this nice and compact opt-out script.

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Posted in Financial, How-To

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Know Any Good MySQL DBA's? We're Hiring.

Posted on November 27, 2007 | Leave a comment

We’re looking for a sharp and experienced MySQL DBA to work in our San Francisco office full-time.  The team is growing quickly and this will be our first DBA hire.

MySQL Database Administrator

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Posted in Internet Business, Jobs

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RecruiterWatch: A Place To Hunt the Head Hunters

Posted on November 15, 2007 | 1 Comment

Here is a new business for you – I’ve even given you the tagline. Please, someone start this. With the pool of talented programmers running dry these days in San Francisco, I’ve resorted to working with recruiters to help find qualified and skilled candidates. The fees are hefty – 20-30% of the employee’s first year base salary plus many of them even want stock in the startup – sometimes as much as the employee they place gets! Recruiters are very easy to find these days. In fact, they seem to find you even when you’re explicitly not looking for one. For instance, Craigslist has a box you can check that says “please, no recruiters”, yet the majority of responses I get from the ad are from recruiters. I’ve decided to allow about some of these recruiters to send me resumes. After all, they all work on contingency so I only pay if they place someone.

Some recruiters will want to come out to your office and soak up hours of time chatting about your “culture” and what you are looking for in a developer (as if “LAMP” skills needed more explanation).   Although the face-to-face does add some value to the process, I think this is mostly a networking play on their part to forge a relationship and make sure their future unsolicited email to you will at least be opened. Many of the recruiters we’ve had come by the office wrote vigorously on their notepads as we described the very basic skills we were looking for (I got the distinct feeling they hadn’t heard of PHP or MySQL before). Others (mainly the ones from Craigslist) will just start showering you with resumes once you’ve given them permission.

Both groups send plenty of unqualified candidates – obviously more from the ones that don’t stop by in person. I have some great and rather embarrassing stories about many of these recruiters already just after a few weeks of working with them. I have yet to see any “hireable” candidates through this channel.

I wish there were some sort of a directory I could reference each time a recruiter contacted me to see what the community thinks of his or her performance. I’d like to know:

  • What kind of luck other employers have had with the recruiter.
    • What is the ratio of good resumes to bad ones?
    • Do they do ridiculous things like send candidates who aren’t willing to commute to your office after you’d been clear about the fact that you need someone in-office?
    • How many actual hires have come from the recruiter?
  • What the candidates think of the recruiter.
    • Does the recruiter thoroughly test and get to know the candidate to ensure more efficient placement?
    • Is the recruiter responsive to calls and emails?
    • Does the recruiter provide feedback when an opportunity is not right so the candidate may learn and improve their skill set?

It’d be nice to have all of this information in a publicly viewable, yelp-style site. If the site got enough audience it could probably get into the job listings business itself! But remember (see previous post about job boards) – keep the listings free!

RecruiterWatch.com (taken w/ no site)
RecruiterWatch.net (available)

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Posted in Internet Business, Jobs, New Business Models

PHP Developers Wanted

Posted on November 2, 2007 | Leave a comment

My startup here in San Francisco is looking for both junior and senior full-time web developers. Our application is on the LAMP stack. Here are the links to the job listings:

Fulltime Web Developer & Fulltime Senior PHP Web Developer

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Posted in Internet Business, Jobs

Sedo's Domain Brokering Service Is A Waste

Posted on October 16, 2007 | 2 Comments

Sedo.com, one of the many tools in the belt of today’s common-man-class domain hoarder, offers a service where, for $69, they will act as a broker on your behalf in a domain acquisition negotiation.  They, of course, make no promises that they’ll be able to get the domain, but they say they’ll try.  You pay $69 either way plus an additional commission if you end up getting the domain.  If they get you the domain, you must of course use Sedo for the escrow (and pay those fees as well).

I paid the fee and commissioned them a couple of months ago to acquire a domain name for me.  It took them 2 weeks to even start the process after I’d paid the fee with my credit card.  After that the communications between myself and my Sedo representative had a minimum several-day (often up to several week) delay.   The particular squatter that owned the domain I wanted lived in France.  Before I paid the $69 I asked a Sedo representative if they’d be able to negotiate in French for me in the event the squatter did not speak English.  I was assured this wouldn’t be a problem.  Finally, a few weeks later, I got a response from my “broker”.  They, naturally, couldn’t get a hold of the squatter.

Trying to get my money’s worth from Sedo, I inquired about another domain I wanted.  Without even contacting the owner, my “broker” replied with “The company that owns that domain doesn’t entertain offers under $500,000 USD.”  To this I replied, “Would you mind going ahead and sending over my offer for $50,000.00 jus to see what they say?”  That was about two weeks ago – still no response from Sedo.

I get the feeling they are sending an email to whoever is on the WHOIS record of the domain and forgetting about it – not something one needs to pay $69 for.  I won’t be dealing with Sedo in the future.

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Posted in Internet Business

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The Online Job Posting Business Model is Begging to be Disrupted

Posted on September 25, 2007 | 6 Comments

I’m in the process of starting a new Internet business. We’re about to close a Series A round with several venture capital firms here in the Bay Area and are actively recruiting developers, database and product people. The labor market is tight in the Bay Area right now and the job boards are certainly cashing in.

Finding good and experienced talent is currently as challenging as ever. Here are the different ways I’ve found one can go about finding talented employees:

  1. Post your job listing on a high-traffic board.
  2. Pay a site like Dice.com to search their repository of technical resumes.
  3. Troll the free resume repository on Craigslist
  4. Cruise social networks like LinkedIn or Facebook and attempt to connect with and poach already employed people at other companies
  5. Pay a head-hunter to bring you candidates. If you hire one you will pay them between 25-30% of the employee’s annual base salary and usually an additional fee on top of that. This really adds up for developers who make in excess of $100k.
  6. Spam all of your friends and let them know you’re hiring. Cheap yet typically ineffective and typically detrimental to friendships.

Craigslist:
I’ve had a lot of luck with Craigslist so I posted there first. They charge $75 per listing – mainly in order to keep spammers from destroying the board. Unfortunately, because it is free to respond, the spammers just destroy it that way instead. One listing for a full-time, in-office technical position with our SF-based startup will typically get 50-75 responses. 80% or so of those are from people or firms outside of the United States (even though the listing clearly says ‘no contractors’ and ‘no telecommuting). Another 15% or so percent are from local contractors not looking for full-time work or local headhunters wanting to charge you astronomical fees to deliver typically less than perfect candidates (just my experience). To date, I’ve posted each of my listings on CL twice and have received between 0 and 3 qualified candidates for each position.

Trolling the CL resume repository is a different story. I’ve found that talented and often employed people will post their resumes here just to keep a net in the water in case anything interesting happens to swim by. I’ve snared several very qualified (and typically employed) candidates from here that have turned out to be excellent prospects. It has also been my experience that if a candidate looks especially appealing but says they prefer contract work, email them anyway – your startup might just be compelling enough to pull them back into the full-time world. Expect to have the old “we’re subsidizing your salary with equity” conversation because consultants are used to making big dollars (sometimes I wonder why I left that world).

Trolling is of course free but takes time. The nice thing is that you can create a search that will find what you’re looking for and then turn it into an RSS feed very easily so you can keep an eye on new resumes.

Free Job Boards:

I don’t know of any other job boards where it is free to list and someone will actually see your posting. I’ve posted to StartUpers.com which has a very cool look and is easy to use but has only yielded several responses – all spam. I also managed to get an invite to Doostang.com, an “invite-only career community started at Harvard, Stanford and MIT.” The rather pompous site has yielded zero leads, legitimate or otherwise – but the listing was free.

It’s really too bad that SimplyHired.com won’t let you post a job to their system. They’ve got one of the best search engines for open positions but they seem to only take feeds from other boards. There are probably competitive issues in play – IE their data sources don’t want them competing with them while monetizing their data.

Not-Free Job Boards:

There is no shortage of these. I’ll give a quick and non-comprehensive list of the ones I considered and ultimately did not post to – mainly because we’re a startup and we can’t afford it (although I’d probably pay if I thought it was worth the fee).

Keep in mind – these are technical positions so I did not consider generic boards like Monster or CareerBuilder. I need to go where my candidates go.

  1. TechCrunch’s CrunchBoard : I know this network gets a lot of traffic from the Silicon Valley community. I’m not convinced developers spend a lot of time reading it (seems like more of a business / product crowd). They charge $200/listing.
  2. LinkedIn is an excellent site that I’m a big fan of. I’m not sure how many developers use it to look for jobs outside of their network (or at all). Their listing fee is $145/listing but gets cheaper if you buy in bulk. I’ve actually had much more success trolling my network for developers here. Most of my connections were happy to pass along messages to developers to the effect of, “Hi, I know you have a job but you look like a stud and I’d like to talk to you about my new startup.” If you happen to find people that you’d rather contact directly (a good idea if you think you’re linked to this person via their existing boss who won’t be inclined to pass along your solicitation) you can upgrade your LinkedIn account to send InMail – IE contact people you don’t know directly. $20/month gets you 4 InMails. The prices climb quickly from there. We’ve had some success with finding people this way.
    11/15/07 UPDATE: I bit the bullet and spent the money to post the listing on LinkedIn. I’ve only had 3 hits – two from people in Eastern Europe (even though I specified no telecommuting) but one was local and is a very strong candidate which made the listing worth-while.
  3. Dice.com. When I was hiring for my last startup between 2004 and 2006 Dice was a great resource. They are certainly capitalizing on the tech labor market these days. They have a large (possibly the largest) resume database and almost 100,000 tech job listings, making it an excellent resource for both job seekers and employers. That is, employers who have the cash. They charge $459/listing to get your jobs on their board for 30 days. Accessing the resume database is so expensive for an employer that they won’t even publish their rates. I had an aggressive sales person from there call me after I filled out the “more info” form. He quoted me about $1,000/month for access to the resume database (I’d be doing my own searches) or I could buy their “special” and get 1 year of access plus 10 slots to post my openings in for something like $10,000/year. This might work for Google and Yahoo! but not for the startup.
  4. 11/15/07 UPDATE: GoBigNetwork.com: I listed the job here after reading about these guys in TechCrunch. The job posting process makes no mention of a listing fee until you are finished creating the listing – pretty sneaky. After spending the time creating an account and the listing, they expect a fee to make the listing go live. I can’t remember what the fee was (well over $100) and there is no way to find out what that fee is from their site without going down the road of creating another listing. I abandoned the listing and was contacted the next day by a GoBig employee. He said he’d give me the listing for free for 30 days. So far I’ve received 3 spam messages via the posting – no candidates. Even at $0 I don’t think it is worth posting there.

I know there are many more sites that will take my money to post the job but after Dice I discontinued my research.

Disruption:

Clearly there is an opportunity here for a superior offering to disrupt the current pricing model. The spam issue is a very real one but I’m sure there are some creative ways to usurp this, even if it involves charging a nominal (even less the CL’s $75) fee.

I don’t see an open community platform for job seekers right now. One that allows employed people, unemployed people and companies come together and keep an eye on each other for opportunities. Plenty of employed people would leave their current position for better pay, a better position, better equity, better work environment, etc. That doesn’t mean they’re going to spend any time looking at openings or applying for them. And plenty of great positions aren’t getting in front of the qualified candidates. I’m a little biased here, but I feel like job seekers using Dice are probably not being exposed to young and innovative startups that need their services but aren’t interested in paying exorbitant fees.

A site that combined listings from sites around the net, LinkedIn-style employee profiles, a vibrant community and company reputation/feedback system that did not charge all the fees we see today would certainly be effective at stealing market share on both the seeker and employer side.

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Posted in Internet Business, Jobs, New Business Models

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Making the Human Resource Supply Chain More Efficient … At A Profit

Posted on July 23, 2007 | Leave a comment

It is always difficult for me to hear a story about massive unmet demand for something in the marketplace without exploring why its being under-served and finding creative (profitable) remedies. Especially when its a service that can easily and cheaply be provided. American Public Media’s Radio Show “Marketplace” ran an interesting piece today about how thousands of immigrants to the US are being turned away by English language training schools in New York City due to the classes being constantly booked. The students, from all corners of the world, are trying to learn English as quickly and efficiently as possible so they may become more productive members of the American economy as quickly as possible.

There’s a lot of political debate around immigration and what our “National Language” ought to be here in the US. I won’t be touching on any of that. I think there’s too much money to be made in satisfying these unmet demands.

Language schools of this nature are obviously not very profitable. If they were, there wouldn’t be so many students being turned away. Its not like there’s a shortage of people who are able to teach English to others in the US. Monetization of this under-served market gets more interesting, however, as you look further down the human resource “supply chain”. These immigrants want to get jobs and contribute to our economy in both unskilled and skilled positions. From bus boy to doctor, they are typically motivated and hard-working individuals that want to integrate as quickly as possible.

The unmet demand in this space is actually two-fold. Not only are there not enough English schools, there are not enough skilled workers in the economy to meet US business’ demands. This is exemplified by US businesses lobbying so strongly for increases in the H1B work visa program over the past decade.

After learning English, many of these immigrants will be eager to join the work force. Many will need training on computers or simple accounting so they may effectively fill office jobs in the US. In a strong economy, such as the current one in the US, staffing companies and temp agencies need to continually replenish their supply of these types of workers. What if the language school these immigrants attended also provided computer and other types of training for a fee? The school would take the student from not knowing any English to full-time employment in a skilled job. If the student could not afford the fee (probably a common scenario) the school could loan the student the money and allow gradual payback once the student is employed and income-producing. The real bread and butter here is the healthy fees from the staffing and temp agencies the school would earn. It would eventually make sense for the school to become a staffing/temp agency itself because it would have such an excellent supply of freshly-trained and eager human capital.

Done properly, the school/staffing agency could be quite profitable and would likely have many of its operating costs subsidized by the government all while fueling the strong growth of US businesses by providing quality workers. If the upcoming immigration bill mandates that English proficiency be a prerequisite for attaining visas or citizenship, your customer base just got substantially bigger.
Today’s Marketplace transcript on this topic: Marketplace: Huddled masses yearning to learn free

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Posted in New Business Models, Society

Still Watching TV From the Couch, but With Content Owners & Distributors Being Paid Differently

Posted on June 20, 2007 | 2 Comments

Any time I get frustrated with how something works in my day-to-day life I start thinking about how some day, years from now, I won’t be afflicted by this incessant inconvenience. Television and online video watching is high on the list of things that can (and will) be done drastically better some day.

There is a lot of noise in this very interesting space right now but only a few devices and services that I think have a real chance of changing how the average American television viewer consumes content.

The Devices

  • TiVo makes the best DVR on the market but has priced itself out of orbit with its near-$1,000 hi-def unit. Their box is Internet-connected (sans-PC) and already has limited access to a handful of video podcasts. If they don’t dramatically drop the price, they’ll continue to lose market share. I own a standard-definition box of theirs and its currently unplugged and sitting in the closet. I didn’t pay $2,000 for a hi-definition plasma so I could watch a standard-def, analog cable signal. Another TiVo handicap is that one cannot access VOD services like Comcast’s OnDemand, which let you watch TV shows or movies (hi-def) whenever you like. I am an avid OnDemand user and would not use a device that couldn’t access that service.
  • Motorola and Scientific America make severely crippled DVR’s with no Internet connectivity and a soul-crushing user experience. These little boxes of terror are distributed for a nominal monthly “lease” fee (typically $5-$10) via the major US cable operators like Comcast and Time Warner. To add injury to injury they even run ads in the program guide. I pay the $10 monthly fee for one of these boxes from Comcast, though, because it’s the only way I can have my hi-def content record to a DVR (without giving TiVo $800 + $16.95/month) AND access OnDemand VOD.
  • Apple TV is a slick little device that syncs music, photos, podcasts, movies and TV shows from a computer (PC or Mac) running iTunes for playback on your hi-definition set. All for $300 (40gb). It can stream or store locally almost any of the content you have in iTunes. I’ve been using the Apple TV (connected to my receiver via HDMI) as my stereo and primary conduit for watching video podcasts. If you buy an episode of a TV show from iTunes, you may also watch it on this device. So, this is (for now) primarily an everything-but-TV device (since you’ll be able to rent movies soon through the Apple TV I’ll assume it will be a decent movie player in the near future, like OnDemand). As long as I’m paying for a hi-def DVR, I will most certainly not be buying episodes of TV shows (or anything else) from iTunes.
  • Other/Generic media PC’s. HP, Dell and others make media PC’s that are intended to work with your television. They’re just regular PC’s running Windows XP Media Center Edition (or whatever equivalent Vista now has) with TV tuner cards and fancy remotes. Don’t bother with this if you have a hi-def set – and if you don’t, then just buy a standard-def Series 2 TiVo for $300! These machines won’t do digital signals, won’t do hi-def, won’t do OnDemand VOD – all they do is time-shift (skip commercials). Yes, you can buy hi-def video cards, etc, but at that point you may as well buy the TiVo Series 3 (hi-def).

The Content Services

Content is further behind on its evolutionary path compared to the hardware, which is scary because the hardware is still so archaic. Most of us are still paying through the nose for digital cable from one of the large US operators. Here are the alternatives so far:

  • A newly launched start-up, from the makers of Kazaa and Skype, called Joost is the most promising and most likely player to carry content that people actually want to watch over a network that isn’t a major cable operator. They’ve struck deals with many of the large studios and networks in the US to legally play great prime-time TV shows through their player. They boast a lot more interactivity and additional content but that stuff doesn’t really matter in this context – it’s still people watching stuff on their computer screen which we all know Americans aren’t going to adapt to when it comes time to relax after a long day of work and watch your favorite shows.
  • YouTube and the countless other video sharing sites command millions of hours of video and many more millions of viewers. Great for when you’re bored at work or want to watch the latest viral short film of an alcoholic toddler threatening Will Ferrel. Not only will people not sit through 30 minute prime-time shows on here, it would be illegal for most of the shows to even exist on YouTube. An interesting twist here is that Apple recently announced that the next update for the Apple TV will allow viewing of YouTube video clips. I imagine this will still be a cumbersome “iTunes-first” process, but an exciting step in the right direction nonetheless.

How We’ll Likely Be Watching TV … Soon

The Register is reporting some interesting news that Joost is in talks with DVR manufacturers to get its software embedded on their Internet-connect set-top boxes. Joost, armed with their network and studio distribution deals, would be the first to provide widely-desired television programming to set-top boxes strictly via the Internet. Apple and TiVo are in position to compete here as well and I hope, for the sake of us consumers, they do. Apple seems to be good at striking deals with content owners and TiVo has the leading hardware platform and decent in-home market share already.

In the hopefully not-so-distant future, The Ultimate Box will let the viewer watch hi-def, prime-time TV shows, rent movies in hi-def, time-shift programs (DVR functionality), watch any video clip on the Internet that has a discernible URL, view photos, videos and music from the user’s own collection, and share this content with friends via the Internet from the set-top box itself.

Economics, from the Networks’ and Advertisers’ Perspective

All of these delicious features are going to have to mix well with the economics of the television industry in order to get the content owners to play ball. NYT has a good numbers article this week that also highlights how the networks are evolving their pricing models. The highlights:

  • Networks now including online exposure in their upfront pricing because advertisers are reluctant to try it on their own.
  • DVR playback data now taken into account as well as audience size for the ads as opposed to the program.
    • The networks want credit for when shows are played more times after the original airing, thus amplifying the number of times the advertisers’ commercials may have been viewed.
    • The advertisers wanted their audience numbers based on how many viewers are watching theor commercials not the program.
    • DVR’s can and do now provide that data to Nielson.
  • Some networks have fully sold their online inventory and some advertisers have unspent broadcast ad dollars for 2007-08 season.
  • Total upfront ad sales (about 75% of all prime-time commercial spots for the season) for all 5 major broadcasters (ABC, CBS, CW, Fox, NBC) was estimated in 2006-07 to be $9.1 billion.
  • The cable networks combine to command about $6.4 billion in advertising spend, making the entire television advertising market about $18.5 billion with the new medium elements worked into the pricing.

It’s smart for the content owners to work the ads into the online versions and then charge advertisers for that exposure and I’m pleased that the commercial-skipping DVR users haven’t soured the advertising business for the networks so much that they’re suing hardware manufacturers to get the feature disabled. It could happen – but it looks like it won’t have to.

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Posted in Financial, Internet Business, Television

When China Isn't Risky Enough: Investing In Colombia

Posted on June 13, 2007 | 1 Comment

BusinessWeek reporter Roben Farzad recently traveled to Columbia to determine whether or not the “third tier” (globally speaking) economy there was ready for mainstream foreign direct investment and an “equity culture”. From an investment perspective, Columbia is the next frontier after the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Its stock market has increased 14-fold since 2001 with a still modest total capitalization of $59 billion.

The one-time murder capital of the world and former home to infamous drug cartel Pablo Escobar, Medellín (pop 2.4mm) is reemerging as the commercial hub of the nation. The president, Alvaro Uribe, unlike most South American leftist leaders, sits right of center and has an approval rating above 60% in his now second term in office. His government is very much interested in attracting growth through foreign investment and understands that this can only be achieved by driving the paramilitary drug lords out of the urban commercial centers, which he’s made good progress at so far.

The U.S. has incentive to stay on good terms with and help Colombia grow as relations with Venezuela and Equador continue to deteriorate. The U.S. has sent $5 billion in aid since 2000 – the 4th largest financial aid recipient of the U.S.

The Colombian stock exchange, called Bolsa de Valores, is merely 12 people sitting in front of trading screen in an office building in Bogotá’s financial district. The exchange closes at 1PM because all business that needs to be transacted for the day is typically done by then. With such a limited number of buyers and sellers in their emerging market, volatility is the norm. In 2005 the Bolsa was up 128% (second best in the world that year). It took a 45% dip last year when many emerging markets were hit – second worst loss in the world. It is down 5% in 2007. Bolsa-listed stocks can only be bought with pesos and there are no Colombian mutual funds available to foreign investors.

Some upcoming public offerings on the Bolsa include Procafecol, a local coffee producer (Juan Valdez), and $4 billion state oil company Ecopetrol, which will likely get listed on the NYX. The only Colombian stock currently listed on the NYX is Bancolombia, whose shares are up 20-fold in the last 5 years.

U.S. investment banks have been buying up companies in Colombia and Colombian companies are slowly starting to export their products to the U.S. to grow faster. The two countries are on the verge of a free-trade agreement, something president Uribe is pushing hard for.

Although murders and other violence is dropping, infrastructure in Colombia continues to degrade and is in need of billions in investment. Many investors are waiting for that to happen to open the floodgates for other markets inside the country. The government is hesitant to break from its old-world traditions of owning all infrastructure, though. They are having trouble raising bond money because they can only deliver 6% returns instead of the 20% they yielded 10 years ago. Critics say there is plenty of private money waiting to fund the infrastructure projects if the government could just adopt an equity frame of mind instead.

The lengthy article has some great descriptions of his personal interactions in Colombia and some more detail on its violent history and how much better it is now. Extreme Investing: Inside Colombia

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